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Assumption Tax

Why Were the Lights On Next Door?

The bill nobody mails you.

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A service van parked outside at blue hour

One Friday afternoon about 20 years ago, the lights went out at a plumbing and air conditioning shop in the Dallas area.

The owner figured it was a power outage, the kind that can leave an entire city block in the dark. So he walked next door to see if the neighbors had lost power too.

To his surprise, their lights were on.

It wasn’t a power outage.

No one had paid the electric bill at his shop.

After he paid it that day, one question stuck with him: How does a company forget to keep its lights on?

That night, he took the financials home and went through them. That one unpaid bill uncovered a much bigger problem in the company. By his own account, the company was about $1 million in debt and close to bankruptcy.

Here’s the part that makes this story hard to understand.

Brent Garrett was an established business coach, spending about 120 days a year on the road helping other shops run efficiently.

He had already built and sold a plumbing and air conditioning company.

He knew the work. He had hired people, handled customers, and made payroll.

Somewhere along the way, he stopped checking. He later admitted he never set up a way to catch problems like this.

Success in his first business had created a blind spot in the next. He knew how to run a successful company, so he assumed he could put it on autopilot while focusing on other opportunities.

That incident woke him up.

Brent came off the road and gave up coaching. It also turned out to be good for his family.

He went back to his own operation. Looking back, he put it plainly: “It’s your money, it’s your financials. You can never delegate that.”

The bill nobody mails you

Many owners end up in Brent’s shoes. They focus on growth, put the business on autopilot, and chase the next opportunity.

Success can create overconfidence. What worked before becomes something you assume will keep working.

We call it the Assumption Tax: the hidden cost of making decisions without evidence. The more assumptions you make, the bigger the price tag grows.

And no one sends you a bill. You have to uncover it yourself.

Brent went next door looking for the problem. It was inside his own shop the whole time.

Your Moneyball move: This week, open your own financials. Pick one number you assume is fine, and check it yourself. As Brent learned, you can never delegate that.

That’s Moneyball for the Trades.

In Chapter 2 of Moneyball for the Trades®, you’ll discover how another successful coach paid a similar Assumption Tax.

You don’t have to wait for the lights to go out to find out where your business stands. Start with your Moneyball IQ.

What’s your Moneyball IQ?

Sources: Profit & Grit, “Why the Lights Went Off at His Plumbing Company,” interview with Brent Garrett, 2026, about 00:00–05:00. Growth Mode Podcast, “From $1 Million in Debt to Business Growth Success,” Brent Garrett. Firsthand account; financial claims were not independently audited.